All-Star Break Win Tracker
The Cardinals are settling in as a just-below .500 team. Here's what it would mean if they stay underwater.
After fluctuating up and down during the first half of the season, in the last couple weeks the team has remained steady at a projection of 79 wins for the season. That would put them just below the 80/81 wins PECOTA and ZiPS projected preseason.
That would also end the Cardinals run of beating their PECOTA projections. Over the last 10 seasons, the Cardinals have beaten their PECOTA projections every season*, except in 2012 when they matched their projection exactly.
This would also mark the first Cardinals team with a losing record since 2007, and only the second in the 2000s.
In 2018, the team finished with 83 wins. On July 14 of that season, they were at 47-46, in 3rd place and 7.5 games behind the Cubs. That was the day they fired Mike Matheny.
This year’s club is 44-46, tied for 3rd place and 8 games behind the Brewers.
What will the Cardinals do in the 2nd half? Ben and I discuss that in our All-Star Break Spectacular, and propose trades we think the team might actually make.
*Last year’s Cardinals technically finished one game below their PECOTA projection, but played fewer games because of COVID. At the rate they played, they still exceeded the projection.